As 2009 draws to a close, I have bad news and I have good news.

First the bad news. According to the Wall Street Journal, stock performance in the decade now ending is the worst ever–worse even than the woeful 1930s. For the past ten years, the value of NYSE-traded stocks has declined by an average of 0.5 percent a year. Compare that to the 1990s, when the average annual increase was an incredible 17.6 percent.

Factor in inflation and it gets even more depressing, with the S&P; 500 declining an inflation-adjusted 3.3 percent annually. During the 1930s, stocks showed an inflation- (deflation, really) adjusted annual gain of 1.8 percent. And the decade now ending saw many notable companies fall out of the S&P; 500, for reasons of scandal (Countrywide, Enron), excess (Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers, Wachovia), misfortune (Circuit City, Lucent, Reebok) and just plain changing dynamics (AT&T, Compaq, Dow Jones & Co., Maytag, Wyeth).

Pretty discouraging, when you think about it. But here’s the good news. The vast majority of American corporations found a way to move ahead during the turbulent ten years past, and all of them–all of us–are the stronger for it. We face challenges ahead, but having muddled through the most difficult decade in two centuries we’ll face little that will surprise us. And those of us who have maintained our focus, kept our nerve and remained consistent throughout should profit all the more.

Here’s to 2010, the dawn of a new decade. May the old one rest in peace.

[Note: Today marks the one-year anniversary of this blog. Prior to launching it last December I wondered--and worried--if I would have enough to write about. If there's any silver lining to the year now past, it's that it provided plenty of content for a blog called "When Growth Stalls." Let's hope next year is a little tougher on me.]

The last days of 2009 will bring a flood of provocative predictions about how radically the world of advertising and marketing will change in 2010. Statements like these–

Push marketing will no longer work

The era of conspicuous consumption is over

Interruption marketing is a thing of the past

–and endless variations of them will be in abundant supply as self-styled pundits, prophets and provocateurs try to grab their fifteen minutes (or 140 characters) of fame. To them I say one thing: dial it back a little.

New technology is enabling unique, intriguing, and thought-provoking avenues by which relationships can be enhanced (or harmed), and it’s doing so at a rapid pace. But branding never has been about one-way communication. It has always been a game of engagement. The tools may change, but the rules never will. And turning a page on the calendar has nothing to do with it.

Will the state of the art in branding be different in 2010 than it was in 2009? Yes, just as ’09 was different from ’08, ’08 was different from ’07, and so on, all the way back to the 19th century (and arguably beyond). The art of marketing continually evolves.

Beware the breathless predictions. People who overstate the change have something in common with old fashioned snake oil salesmen. In that respect, some things never change.

I don’t know if two instances signify a trend, but I’m pretty sure in this case they mark at least a fad.

Catching up on my newspaper reading over the weekend, I noticed two advertisers using social media soundbites to boast of their products. The first was Motorola, which incorporated into its ad quotes pulled from Facebook, Twitter, and a site called Phandroid.com (“The first independent website dedicated to delivering Android news”), among others. The second was for Trident’s new Layers chewing gum, sticking strictly with Twitter (headline: “The people have Tweeted”).

I don’t know whether or not these advertisers sought permission from the quoted to feature their testimonials, but imagine how excited @mattchew03 and @amybites must be to see Trident put their “names” in print. And suspicious Twitter handles (-chew? -bites?) aside, I have to believe that they are legitimate endorsements (as opposed to planted reviews, which no advertiser would be dumb enough to employ in the age of social media).

In my December BusinessWeek.com column, I highlighted the vital need for internal branding, calling it the missing link between perception and reality, promise and delivery, effective marketing and positive outcomes.

Now along comes a speech by Jon Iwata, SVP of communications and marketing at IBM, that makes my argument look like a kiddy pool compared to the depths he’s diving. His speech was titled, “Toward a New Profession: Brand, Constituency and Eminence on the Global Commons,” but don’t let that scare you. He made some insightful points about why IBM has created a new internal discipline that combines brand management and what he calls “workforce enablement,” aligning “experts in the workplace and experts in the marketplace.”

The reason? Iwata says, “One day soon, every employee, every retiree, every customer, every business partner, every investor and every neighbor associated with every company will be able to share an opinion about that company with everyone in the world, based on firsthand experience. The only way we can be comfortable in that world is if every employee of the company is truly grounded in what their company values and stands for.”

In ancitipation, Iwata emphasizes the need to “go from managing outward expressions and manifestations of the company – visual identity, naming conventions, messaging, design and the like – to the behavior and performance of people.”

Iwata also addresses the current corporate hand-wringing over social media: “The CFO worries about financial disclosure. The General Counsel fears intellectual property leakage. HR will say we’re helping competitors recruit our people. And everyone will be nervous about criticism of management.” But instead of mocking these worries, he points out how legitimate they are and that they will need to be—and will be—addressed. The key, he believes, is not just to lay down policies and procedures (although those do have a role), but to “build the eminence of our workforce.”

Perhaps this statement sums up the speech best: “For great companies, values are not the work of “positioning” or messaging or story-telling alone. For great companies, what they value defines who they are – and who they hire, and what they make, and the broader constituency of aspiration they seek to define. And they methodically and intentionally align their operations and cultures to authentically be that.”

Iwata is not only smart, his speech demonstrated a humanity and a humility not often found at the highest levels of the biggest corporations. Count me a fan. If you’d like to read the speech in its entirety, it’s [here].

[Note: The below is a reprint of a piece I wrote for BusinessWeek.com in 2006. I thought it was still pertinent--perhaps even more so--today.]

I miss Christmas.

The other night I saw a TV commercial from Lowe’s that was built upon a cute premise. A clumsy young guy approached a female warehouse employee and blurted out, “Would you be my wife?” Startled, the clerk hesitantly began walking the man through the store until she realized that all he wanted was a woman’s opinion about the gift he was thinking about buying for the love of his life.

But here’s where the spot went south: as the young man role played with the clerk, turning around and presenting his “wife” her gift (presumably on Christmas morning), he looked at her and exclaimed, “Happy Holidays!”

Happy holidays? Is that really what a husband would say to his wife? By trying to cover all the bases, the spot just felt forced. It was a departure from reality and a prime example of the unreasonable fear advertisers have these days of saying the word “Christmas.”

It used to be that people wrung their hands about the over-commercialization of Christmas. These days we have almost the opposite problem—Christmas is disappearing entirely. Advertisers still want the huge spike in sales that Christmas provides but they’re afraid to acknowledge the holiday itself. It’s almost funny to watch them trip over themselves trying to find euphemisms as they avoid saying the dreaded “C” word. But “happy holidays” and “season’s greetings” only go so far. They sound hollow and synthetic, and that kind of approach is no way to build a connection with your target audience.

It seems that companies have become so afraid of offending some mythical person out there that they’re unwilling to express their true sentiments. After 20 years in the advertising business there’s one thing I’ve learned: every ad is offensive to someone. Still, I find it a stretch to think that wishing your customers a “Merry Christmas” is going to set somebody off. And if it does, well, there’s a word for them: Scrooge.

Ah, you say, but Christmas is a religious holiday—what about people from other faiths? It’s true that to millions of people Christmas is the most religious holiday of the year, but to millions of others it’s all about Santa Claus and reindeer and stockings hung by the chimney with care. It truly is the most wonderful time of the year, even for those who don’t celebrate it as a religious holiday. And there’s no reason why the recognition of one holiday precludes the celebration of others. Lumping them together only makes each less special.

Remember “A Charlie Brown Christmas”? Of course you do, because it’s perhaps the most popular Christmas television program of all time. For 41 years this charming (and overtly religious) special has been delighting children of all ages, and it has lost none of its appeal. Why? Because people love Christmas.

And just think of all the warm advertising traditions associated with Christmas, from the Budweiser Clydesdales to the Norelco Santa. In fact, not so long ago Norelco used to call itself “Noelco” during the holidays and use the tagline “Even our name says Merry Christmas.”

Seventy-five years ago Coca-Cola invented the modern image of Santa Claus, a fact of which—to their credit—they still proudly boast. But even Coke has gotten cold feet; they’re featuring Santa on their packaging this year but still won’t call it a “Christmas Can” (despite the nice alliteration). Instead, they printed “Holiday Can” at the top. Ugh.

By all means don’t be insincere. If you don’t want people to have a merry Christmas, don’t say so. But if you do, don’t be afraid to let your advertising spread a little Christmas cheer. Otherwise, before long we’ll all be reduced to humming holiday carols as we open our holiday cards and put holiday presents under our holiday trees. Not to mention dreaming of a white holiday.

To that I say humbug. Merry Christmas!

“Most of the world seems to be focused on the Americans who are unemployed. We’re focused on the 90% that are still employed.”

Those are the words of Ron Shaich, CEO of Panera Bread, the 1,300-unit bakery-cafe that has found a way to thrive in spite of the recession. Its formula? A combination of smart financial management and keen understanding of its core customers, most of whom remain gainfully employed (and ever-more attuned to good value).

Rather than cutting corners, Panera has focused on offering more to its broad range of middle income customers, including free wi-fi access and frequent new menu offerings. “In many ways, we’re renting space to people and the food is the price of admission,” said Shaich. Panera COO Rick Vanzura agrees, saying, “A bunch of folks have been cutting quality to cut price to go after the marginal customer. We said a better strategy that addresses a bigger group of people is providing better value.”

The strategy is working. In 2008 (a very bad year for most fast-casual restaurants), Panera Bread grew by double digits. In 2009–the worst economic year in generations–the company managed to keep same store sales from declining, and in the third quarter actually increased them by 3 percent. Food industry analyst Darren Tristano pinpoints why: “Panera’s on-trend with what consumers are asking for: fresh, customizable, convenient, won’t break the bank.”

Panera Bread has been able maintain its focus because of careful cash management. Rather than using debt to expand, assuming the good times of years past would keep on rolling, the company grew slowly and deliberately over the past decade. That kept it healthy from a cash flow perspective and prevented it from having to cut corners or cut margins (or both) when times got tough. As Shaich says, “Every chain is cutting something — portion size, quality, hours of labor. The result is that ultimately the customer feels it.”

Most players in the restaurant industry—in most industries, for that matter—think the current game is all about price. Panera Bread is an all-too rare exception, demonstrating that companies that keep their focus, nerve, consensus and consistency can thrive even in bad times. I’m a fan.